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Intelligent Forecasting Mode and Approach of Mid and Long Term Intelligent Hydrological Forecasting

Chen Shouyu,Guo Yu,Wang Dagang

Strategic Study of CAE 2006, Volume 8, Issue 7,   Pages 30-35

Abstract: synthesizes fuzzy optimal selection, BP neural network and genetic algorithm and establishes intelligent forecastingWhen illustrating the method by an application to forecast mid and long term hydrological process ofamount of training samples, and gets relative membership degree matrix according to the correlation of forecastingfactors and forecasting objective, then takes the matrix as input of BP neural network to train link-weights, and finally, uses gained link-weight values to verify forecasting.

Keywords： fuzzy optimal selection     BP neural network     genetic algorithm     intelligent forecasting mode     mid and longterm intelligent hydrological forecasting    

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Evaluation of the impact of multi-source uncertainties on meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasting Article

Zhangkang Shu, Jianyun Zhang, Lin Wang, Junliang Jin, Ningbo Cui, Guoqing Wang, Zhouliang Sun, Yanli Liu, Zhenxin Bao, Cuishan Liu

Engineering 2023, Volume 24, Issue 5,   Pages 213-229 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2022.06.007

Abstract:

Evaluating the impact of multi-source uncertainties in complex forecasting systems is essential toforecasting systems.system was more significant than the hydrological model uncertainty.The hydrological model structure uncertainty was more prominent than the parameter uncertainty.forecasting system.

Keywords： Meteorological and hydrological forecasting     Uncertainty estimation     Bayesian model averaging     Ensemble    

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Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering 2015, Volume 2, Issue 4,   Pages 283-294 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2015076

Abstract: Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growthModels can be categorized into three classes: (1) regional distributed hydrological models with various

Keywords： hydrological processes     irrigation area     SPAC     crop growth     groundwater     canal seepage    

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Regional wind power forecasting model with NWP grid data optimized

Zhao WANG, Weisheng WANG, Bo WANG

Frontiers in Energy 2017, Volume 11, Issue 2,   Pages 175-183 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0471-9

Abstract: To take full advantage of the environmental benefits of wind energy, wind power forecasting has to bePower forecasting for regional wind farm groups is the problem that many power system operators care

Keywords： regional wind power forecasting     feature set     minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR)     principal component    

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A comprehensive review and analysis of solar forecasting techniques

Pardeep SINGLA, Manoj DUHAN, Sumit SAROHA

Frontiers in Energy 2022, Volume 16, Issue 2,   Pages 187-223 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0722-7

Abstract: Solar forecasting plays a vital role in smooth operation, scheduling, and balancing of electricity productionNumerous models and techniques have been developed in short, mid and long-term solar forecasting.This paper analyzes some of the potential solar forecasting models based on various methodologies discussed

Keywords： forecasting techniques     hybrid models     neural network     solar forecasting     error metric     support vector machine    

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Effects of land use change on hydrological cycle from forest to upland field in a catchment, Japan

Chuan ZHANG, Keiji TAKASE, Hiroki OUE, Nobuhiro EBISU, Haofang YAN

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2013, Volume 7, Issue 4,   Pages 456-465 doi: 10.1007/s11709-013-0218-6

Abstract: Understanding the effects of land use change on the hydrological cycle is very important for developmentIn this study, soil and hydrological properties in an upland field catchment, which was reclaimed partiallyFurthermore, a semi-distributed hydrological model was applied in the upland field catchment to understandthe integrated effects of reclamation on the hydrological cycle.

Keywords： land-use change     hydrological processes     upland field catchment     forest catchment     semi-distributed hydrological    

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A review of hydrological/water-quality models

Liangliang GAO,Daoliang LI

Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering 2014, Volume 1, Issue 4,   Pages 267-276 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2014041

Abstract: Water quality models are important in predicting the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. A range of water quality models are wildly used, but every model has its advantages and limitations for specific situations. The aim of this review is to provide a guide to researcher for selecting a suitable water quality model. Eight well known water quality models were selected for this review: SWAT, WASP, QUALs, MIKE 11, HSPF, CE-QUAL-W2, ELCOM-CAEDYM and EFDC. Each model is described according to its intended use, development, simulation elements, basic principles and applicability (e.g., for rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and estuaries). Currently, the most important trends for future model development are: (1) combination models—individual models cannot completely solve the complex situations so combined models are needed to obtain the most appropriate results, (2) application of artificial intelligence and mechanistic models combined with non-mechanistic models will provide more accurate results because of the realistic parameters derived from non-mechanistic models, and (3) integration with remote sensing, geographical information and global position systems (3S) —3S can solve problems requiring large amounts of data.

Keywords： water quality models     applications     future trends    

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Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

Jiarui HAN, Qian YE, Zhongwei YAN, Meiyan JIAO, Jiangjiang XIA

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2011, Volume 5, Issue 4,   Pages 533-542 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0246-6

Abstract: An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information.community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecastingThe weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with differentA study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactiveseason, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological

Keywords： user-end information     user-oriented     interactive forecasting system     TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global    

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Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies

Zhang Xiaolin

Strategic Study of CAE 2018, Volume 20, Issue 6,   Pages 117-121 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.06.019

Abstract:

The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on Persistent Forecastingof Disruptive Technologies analyzes the key issues of disruptive technology forecasting and proposesan ideal persistent forecasting system model.On this basis, the paper summarizes the connotation and challenges of disruptive technology forecastingFinally, the enlightenment of the research on disruptive technology forecasting is proposed, thus to

Keywords： disruptive technologies     persistent forecasting     ideal forecasting system    

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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

Frontiers in Energy 2016, Volume 10, Issue 1,   Pages 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

Abstract: This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networksPrice forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation.data for the electricity price forecasting tool.The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website.forecasting approach.

Keywords： day-ahead electricity markets     price forecasting     load forecasting     artificial neural networks     load serving    

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Corrigendum to ‘‘A Comparison of SWAT Model Calibration Techniques for Hydrological Modeling in the Ganga Corrigendum

Nikita Shivhare, Prabhat Kumar Singh Dikshit, Shyam Bihari

Engineering 2019, Volume 5, Issue 1,   Pages 181-181 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2018.11.009

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Forecasting industrial emissions: a monetary approach

Yang DONG, Yi LIU, Jining CHEN, Yebin DONG, Benliang QU

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2012, Volume 6, Issue 5,   Pages 734-742 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0451-6

Abstract: Forecasts of industrial emissions provide a basis for impact assessment and development planning. To date, most studies have assumed that industrial emissions are simply coupled to production value at a given stage of technical progress. It has been argued that the monetary method tends to overestimate pollution loads because it is highly influenced by market prices and fails to address spatial development schemes. This article develops a land use-based environmental performance index (L-EPI) that treats the industrial land areas as a dependent variable for pollution emissions. The basic assumption of the method is that at a planning level, industrial land use change can represent the change in industrial structure and production yield. This physical metric provides a connection between the state-of-the-art and potential impacts of future development and thus avoids the intrinsic pitfalls of the industrial Gross Domestic Product-based approach. Both methods were applied to examine future industrial emissions at the planning area of Dalian Municipality, North-west China, under a development scheme provided by the urban master plan. The results suggested that the L-EPI method is highly reliable and applicable for the estimation and explanation of the spatial variation associated with industrial emissions.

Keywords： industrial emissions     environmental performance index     spatial planning     industrial land use    

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Research on Nonlinear Combination Forecasting Approach Based on BP-AGA

Wang Shuo,Zhang Youfu,Jin Juliang

Strategic Study of CAE 2005, Volume 7, Issue 4,   Pages 83-87

Abstract:

A nonlinear combination forecasting model was established by using neural network and acceleratingExamples were presented finally, as a result, the forecasting precision high in evidence.

Keywords： neural network     accelerating genetic algorithm     nonlinear combination forecasting     forecasting precision    

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Trend detection and stochastic simulation prediction of streamflow at Yingluoxia hydrological station

Chenglong ZHANG,Mo LI,Ping GUO

Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering 2017, Volume 4, Issue 1,   Pages 81-96 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2016112

Abstract: the trends of hydrologic time series are nonstationary, and consequently the established methods for hydrologicalwas used to simulate these stochastic components with normal distribution, and thus a new ensemble hydrological

Keywords： Monte Carlo     nonstationary     trend detection     streamflow prediction     decomposition and ensemble     Yingluoxia    

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A new systematic firefly algorithm for forecasting the durability of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete

Wafaa Mohamed SHABAN; Khalid ELBAZ; Mohamed AMIN; Ayat gamal ASHOUR

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2022, Volume 16, Issue 3,   Pages 329-346 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0801-9

Abstract: CFA optimizer is augmented with chaotic maps and Lévy flight to improve the firefly performance in forecasting

Keywords： chloride penetrability     recycled aggregate concrete     machine learning     concrete components     durability    

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Title Author Date Type Operation

Intelligent Forecasting Mode and Approach of Mid and Long Term Intelligent Hydrological Forecasting

Chen Shouyu,Guo Yu,Wang Dagang

Journal Article

Evaluation of the impact of multi-source uncertainties on meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasting

Zhangkang Shu, Jianyun Zhang, Lin Wang, Junliang Jin, Ningbo Cui, Guoqing Wang, Zhouliang Sun, Yanli Liu, Zhenxin Bao, Cuishan Liu

Journal Article

Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

Journal Article

Regional wind power forecasting model with NWP grid data optimized

Zhao WANG, Weisheng WANG, Bo WANG

Journal Article

A comprehensive review and analysis of solar forecasting techniques

Pardeep SINGLA, Manoj DUHAN, Sumit SAROHA

Journal Article

Effects of land use change on hydrological cycle from forest to upland field in a catchment, Japan

Chuan ZHANG, Keiji TAKASE, Hiroki OUE, Nobuhiro EBISU, Haofang YAN

Journal Article

A review of hydrological/water-quality models

Liangliang GAO,Daoliang LI

Journal Article

Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

Jiarui HAN, Qian YE, Zhongwei YAN, Meiyan JIAO, Jiangjiang XIA

Journal Article

Analysis of US National Research Council’s Persistent Forecasting System of Disruptive Technologies

Zhang Xiaolin

Journal Article

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

Journal Article

Corrigendum to ‘‘A Comparison of SWAT Model Calibration Techniques for Hydrological Modeling in the Ganga

Nikita Shivhare, Prabhat Kumar Singh Dikshit, Shyam Bihari

Journal Article

Forecasting industrial emissions: a monetary approach

Yang DONG, Yi LIU, Jining CHEN, Yebin DONG, Benliang QU

Journal Article

Research on Nonlinear Combination Forecasting Approach Based on BP-AGA

Wang Shuo,Zhang Youfu,Jin Juliang

Journal Article

Trend detection and stochastic simulation prediction of streamflow at Yingluoxia hydrological station

Chenglong ZHANG,Mo LI,Ping GUO

Journal Article

A new systematic firefly algorithm for forecasting the durability of reinforced recycled aggregate concrete

Wafaa Mohamed SHABAN; Khalid ELBAZ; Mohamed AMIN; Ayat gamal ASHOUR

Journal Article